Joe Biden’s campaign is struggling.
The Economist’s prediction model has given President Trump a 74% chance of winning the electoral college and Joe Biden just a 26% chance.
Situation for Dems has deteriorated pretty quickly (started pre-debate). Only two months ago, @TheEconomist model put Trump/Biden odds near even.
— Archie Hall (@ArchieHall) July 10, 2024
Now a big gulf.https://t.co/QaepEdbKZ5 pic.twitter.com/pKcswyj5TH
Fox Business reported:
Former President Trump’s odds of returning to the White House are on an upward trajectory, and President Biden’s chances of re-election are in free fall as the Democratic Party’s presumed nominee faces mounting scrutiny over his ability to serve as commander in chief for another term.
As of Monday, The Economist’s prediction model showed Trump had a roughly 3-in-4 (74%) chance of winning the electoral college in 2024, while Biden had a 1-in-4 (26%) chance.
The model predicts Trump will rack up 310 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, compared to an expected 228 for Biden. When the two candidates first squared off in 2020, Biden won the presidency with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
While Trump’s chances have seen a boost of three points and Biden’s dropped by the same amount since Biden’s disastrous performance at the debate between the two candidates on June 27, Trump has held a commanding lead in the forecast for months. But the model shows that in early June, Trump’s odds began to climb steadily while Biden’s plummeted.
Unfortunately, for Democrats it’s too late to replace Joe Biden.
Their only chance is for Biden to voluntarily and gracefully step aside. However, this option appears improbable, given his letter to House Democrats earlier this week, in which he asserted that he is “firmly committed to staying in the race.”
This brings us to an examination of the polling data and the current projections from various election models.
Here’s CNN’s model, based on their own polling with toss-up states:
TRUMP 👊🇺🇸👊
— SANTINO (@MichaelSCollura) January 8, 2024
“CNN’s inaugural Road to 270 shows Trump in a position to win the White House” https://t.co/aT9HGqRZE4 pic.twitter.com/iAVFWYt0Iu
Here’s RealClearPolitics model, based on polling and without toss-up states:
REAL CLEAR POLITICS: 2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States pic.twitter.com/TYFmGUNpwS
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) June 18, 2024
Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s model, which ran 100 simulations:
And there’s the Cook Political Report, which shows delegates in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska are shifting toward Trump amid the turmoil within the Democrat party.
🚨🚨🚨 ELECTORAL COLLEGE SHIFTS TOWARD TRUMP: According to the Cook Political Report, which trackes electoral ratings in each district, delegates in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska are shifting right amid the turmoil within the Democrati party. The… pic.twitter.com/EN0wT66zXd
— 🇺🇸 Freedom Piper 🇺🇸 (@FreeThinkerInc) July 10, 2024
Many Democrats were hoping that Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers would discourage him from running for re-election.
Breitbart reported:
Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief for Cook Political Report, said that Washington insiders have expressed hope that the bad poll numbers will push Biden into announcing his exit from the ticket.
“Insiders we spoke with over the weekend said they expected a ‘deluge’ of Democratic congressional defections by Monday,” Walter said. “As of Tuesday morning, those desertions have amounted to no more than a trickle. Even so, plenty of nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors are hoping that team Biden, confronted with worsening poll numbers and an aggressively antagonistic press corps, will see the writing on the wall and gracefully announce his exit from the contest. That possibility looks remote as of this writing.”
“We can’t wave away the uncertainty of this moment, but we can try to soberly assess where things stand today, and where they are likely to go from here,” Walter added.
